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Assistant Professor Du Yingxin Publishes Research in Journal of International Economics

Recently, Du Yingxin, Assistant Professor in CIWTO, has had her paper "Bilateral Trade and Shocks in Political Relations: Evidence from China and Some of Its Major Trading Partners, 1990 -2013" published in Journal of International Economics, one of the top journals in the field of international economics. She co-authored the research with Ju Jiandong, Professor at Tsinghua University, Carlos D. Ramirez, Professor at George Mason University, and Yao Xi, Post-doctoral Researcher at Peking University.

The research utilizes data of bilateral trade and political relations between China and some of its major trading partners during the period of 1900 to 2013, pointing out the time-aggregation bias in the existing empirical research and provide insights on the relationship between political shocks and trade. The paper argues that an extensive number of studies investigate the effects of political relations on trade by estimating a gravity model using annual (or quarterly) data while in fact the cycle of moderate political shocks is much shorter (measured in weeks). Through mathematical illustration and a comparison of the monthly- and annual-frequency gravity equation regressions, the study shows that when estimating the impact of political shocks on trade, existing empirical studies can result in inaccurate estimates due to the usage of data at a relatively lower frequency. Using case studies and a VAR analysis with monthly data, their research finds that although political shocks influence exports to China, the effects largely vanish within two months.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199617300752